EUR/USD Thetradersclub daily analysis

[thetradersclub]

I have attached James's report to my other site www.freeforex4all.com, as there is also a summary of last week's trades that might be of interest to some of you.

Enjoy,
Chris.

[thetradersclub]

It's been a busy and profitable trading week, and we've finally
reached the end of May with a good pip haul in the bag.

As it's the last Friday of the month, and after quite a volatile
week, I expect it's best to take a break from the markets, and
look to resume next week.


Some important news though…

For the first time ever James is going to going to teach his unique scalping system where he takes 20-30 pips in just a few minutes every day.
To learn more check out …

www.freeforex4all.com

[thetradersclub]

IMPORTANT: This report is not an express or implied recommendation, guidance or proposal that any particular Forex analysis or trade is appropriate to the particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any recipient.

Please note: Members get a more detailed report with screenshots of all the chart set ups.

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2143

Key G7 support levels: 1.2250, 1.2210/20, 1.2150

Counter-trend opportunities:

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Today’s trade suggestion:

Lots of traders have been struggling through the tough market conditions over the past few months, but G7 has done well. This week we retain the bullish direction, despite calls from the newspapers for the euro’s imminent demise. There are some key levels below us, starting at the 1.2250 Fibonacci support, with the 786 support perhaps even more important below us at 1.2210/20. Watch and wait for dips before buying the euro after a

clear g7 entry signal. The target for rallies is 1.2450 to start with, and then 1.2600 later this week. If we fall below the weekly reversal level at 1.2150, the bullish scenario is put on ice!

Summary:

Buy dips to supports at 1.2250 or 1.2210/20 after a clear G7 signal. Short term target 1.2450 and then 1.2600

For the rest of the analysis on GBP/USD and JPY/USD please go to ...www.freeforex4all.com

[thetradersclub]

Here's the link to today's Forex video report:

www.forex-science.com/daily.html

[thetradersclub]

Yesterday's final webinar trade hit the 100 pip profit target
after a few hours of dibbling about. Hope you all got a piece
of it. (short GBP)

Today is NFP Friday and, as usual, it's best to avoid trading.

Something for you to read though while you sit around...

Risk exposure


Many traders expose themselves to far too much risk, and that almost always ends in disaster. If you want to last as a trader, you have to be extremely disciplined when it comes to risk. This means suppressing the emotions and relying on probability, logic and common sense, none of which comes naturally to the human mind.


I guess there are five rules which should be applied on this subject, and if you can manage to apply these rules every single time you trade, there should be no reason for you to fail (as long as you have even a half decent trading system)


Risk Rule number 1 - keep tight stop losses. This is easier said than done, purely due to the emotional tendency to increase stop losses when a loss is imminent, or to add extra positions to an already losing trade. As we have stressed before JUST DON'T DO IT! You can always re-enter the market once you have been stopped out for a small loss, but it is much harder to recover after a huge loss, when your account is down by a significant percentage.


When using candlestick reversal patterns as the entry trigger, simple place the stop loss 5-10 pips below the low of the reversal candle if buying, or 5-10 pips above the reversal candle if selling. This will, in most cases, allow you to use a stop loss of between 20 and 50 pips, with no more than 60 pips as a rule.


Risk Rule number 2 - Do not leverage your account more than required. Whilst we cannot recommend the right leverage for your own trading, we suggest a leverage of no more than 10:1 and preferably 5:1 or lower. This means you should not trade more than 10k for each 1k in your trading account, preferably no more than 5k per 1k in your account. If you stick to rules 1 and 2, you will never be exposing more than about 2% of your account in a losing trade.


Risk Rule number 3 - enter one currency at a time to start with. If you feel that there is a BUY signal on the Euro, the Pound and the Yen all at the same time, rather enter only one currency to start with. For example, enter only the Euro and see how the trade goes. If you win the trade, you didn't need the other two currencies, but if you lose the trade, you didn't lose too much, and you then have a chance to re-enter the same currency and another at a better entry price. In other words, if your direction is short the Dollar, start shorting with one pair only, and then work your way into the other pairs later on if you lose the first trade. This discipline will help you to minimize risk, but maximize opportunities when they come along.




Risk Rule number 4 - Aim for at profits at least twice the size of your stop loss. In other words, if your stop is 30 pips on a trade, be sure to aim for at least 60 pips if the trade is a winner. It is not always possible to do this, but at least have it as a goal. If you are able to stick to this discipline, you can win only 50% of your trades and yet still make a healthy monthly profit.


Risk Rule number 5 - When you have reached your weekly or monthly target, STOP TRADING! I generally aim for 300-400 pips per month (60-100 per week) and stop trading when I have reached those targets. Doing so has several benefits:


•You protect your profits •You avoid over-trading •You take advantage of the cyclical nature of most trading models •You get a well earned rest on occasion •Your results become more consistent

Cheers,

Chris.

[thetradersclub]

Your Trading Plan

Your trading plan should be based around your investment objectives, your personality and your starting capital.

Trading is different for everyone and it is important to have a plan that is realistic and reflects your unique personality and circumstances.

Constructing & Implementing – Your Trading Plan:

Do Your Homework

It is firstly essential to learn the basics, how and why markets move and research a method that you are comfortable with to trade: ie one that is based on sound methodology, and one you can trade with confidence, and discipline. So before you start to trade make sure you have good background knowledge on all aspects of trading. You would not try and drive a car without lessons, and the same is true of trading
currencies. If you trade and “shoot from the hip”, or on tips from friends, and stories in the financial press, you are almost certainly going to end up a loser over time.

Match Your Method To Your Personality

It should be one you have decided you have confidence in and can implement with discipline.

This may sound obvious, but many traders trade in a way that is totally opposed to their personality. For example, if you are impatient and hate giving back any profits then a long-term trend following system is not for you; you would probably be better suited to a shorter-term swing trading method... more at freeforex4all.com

[thetradersclub]

IMPORTANT: This report is not an express or implied recommendation, guidance or proposal that any particular Forex analysis or trade is appropriate to the particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any recipient.

EUR/USD
Weekly Trend direction: Bullish
Weekly trend reversal level: 1.1870
Key G7 support levels: 1.2150*, 1.2250, 1.2150
Counter-trend opportunities: 1.2480

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Today's trade suggestion:
Last week's (almost piercing pattern, and this week's break above the weekly reversal level, mean that I have turned bullish on the euro. We need to be careful on this one, as the overall trend remains bearish, as does sentiment from the Euro zone. This means that the counter-trend levels above at 1.2280 and 1.2370 are not only potential good exit levels for long trades, but also chances to sell the euro if and when we get there. Support levels below are listed above, with 1.2150 and 1.2080 being the key levels if the upward trend is to continue with good momentum. Watch and wait for a clear G7 entry signal before buying - targets as above. We are into the middle of June - historically a period for good strong trends before the holiday doldrums during July and August.

Update: The euro rallied as expected from support at 1.2250. We'll have to wait for a significant retracement before re-buying - probably next week. There is a counter trend opportunity to sell at 1.2480 (confluence of fibs and an "80" level. Watch and wait for a decent G7 entry signal before selling for a target at 1.2350. Could be agood one!

Summary:
Buy dips to supports after a clear G7 signal. Try counter-trend shorts at 1.2480 after a decent g7 entry signal.

[thetradersclub]

Here is today’s report …

Jun. 21

IMPORTANT: This report is not an express or implied recommendation, guidance or proposal that any particular
Forex analysis or trade is appropriate to the particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular
needs of any recipient.

EUR/USD
Weekly Trend direction: Bullish
Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2100
Key G7 support levels: 1.2350, 1.2250*, 1.2150/80
Counter-trend opportunities: 1.2480

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Today’s trade suggestion:
A very deliberate (and yet pedestrian) march higher has created yet another bullish week for the euro. This means we look to buy the currency into dips at the support levels listed above. 1.2250 is the key level early in the week. Some caution is needed: The long hourly trend line and the 8 day chart “soldiers” means that a significant correction is needed before more bullish momentum can be generated. If the hourly trend line breaks, the price could drop sharply to supports at 1.2250 and 1.2150/80. Notice the strong hourly stochastic divergence.

Countertrend
traders might still like to try small shorts from 1.2480 after a clear G7 entry signal.

Summary:
Buy dips to supports after a clear G7 signal. Try counter-trend shorts at 1.2480 after a decent g7 entry signal.

USD/JPY
Weekly Trend direction: Bearish
Weekly trend reversal level: 92.20
Key G7 resistance levels: 91.10, 91.40, 91.80/92.00
Counter-trend opportunities:

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level sell rallies to resistance levels after an entry signal

Today’s trade suggestion:
It’s been a while since the dollar turned bearish vs. the Yen. As we have been chopping around above the weekly trend line in a tight range for weeks, there isn’t much significance to the weekly candle direction. However, we’ll
go with the short direction and look to sell the dollar into rallies. Resistance lies overhead at 91.10, 91.40 and 91.80/92.00. We’ll watch and wait for a G7 entry signal before selling the dollar for a target of 90.00 and then 89.20. This is such a messy chart that avoiding this pair is probably the best strategy if possible.

Summary:
Sell the dollar into rallies to the resistance levels above after a clear g7 entry signal. Target 90.00 and then 89.20. Stay out if possible!

[thetradersclub]

EUR/USD

Update: We dipped just below the weekly reversal level yesterday and formed a new hourly/daily “spike low” For this reason, I have adjusted the weekly reversal level to 1.2150, after having bought the euro at 1.2180 yesterday (see the G7 alert email sent at 3.07 pm GMT yesterday) The only remaining strategy now is to hold this trade for a target of roughly 1.2380, or lower if we run out of gas. I’ll alert by email!

Summary:
Hold longs from 1.2180, target 1.2380.

GBP/USD
Update: Little change from yesterday, apart from a small foray to 1.5130. The strategy remains unchanged from above. Note the potential “head and shoulders” pattern on the hourly chart. Aggressive traders might try small shorts from 1.5060/80, stops above 1.5110, for a target of 1.4920/50, where we’ll look for opportunities to buy next week.

Summary:
Buy dips to supports listed above after a clear entry signal. Target 1.5000 and then perhaps 1.5500. Aggressive traders might try small shorts as described above.

[thetradersclub]

There is no analysis today as James won’t be trading because it’s Non Farm Payrolls day.

So I thought I would remind you instead of something Bill Poulos recently said about why amateurs fail (we are all amateurs at times so don’t think this doesn’t apply to you too)

Buying a new trading system…

One phenomenon that derails amateur Forex traders time and time again is method complexity syndrome. They research a trading method, buy it and the minute they receive it, they jump ahead to what they consider to be the guts of the method. In doing so, they completely ignore all of the other aspects of trading, including risk management, discipline, and psychology.
They get into the "guts" of the method only looking for that big, mysterious, slap-your-forehead, jaw-dropping "secret" which will suddenly unlock the mysteries of the Forex universe and make them Master and Commander of every Forex pair. All too often, they find themselves completely disappointed or the "guts" reveal something they'd already heard about (but had not practiced). Amateur traders will then dismiss the method as 'too simple'.


Or, the amateur trader will look for that complicated formula, cryptic combination of indicators and all too often what they actually discover is a set of simple indicators working together in an uncommon way, and they say, "Well I could have done that!" - and they become disappointed or frustrated, because they wrongly assume that any method MUST BE complex, it can't possible be SIMPLE! So, they shelve the method or return it and complain that it's "not complicated" enough.
This is a serious mistake - because the amateur trader will then repeat this error method after method and they will never take the time to learn and understand the full process of trading.


Don't make this mistake. Understand that most trading methods out there are not complicated. They weave a smaller set of rules together in a simple manner (simple enough that anybody can apply them) but apply them in an uncommon way. Complex systems are for computer geeks and big banks -- if you can't understand something, you can't possibly apply it.


Never skip ahead when learning a powerful new method for trading Forex. Make certain you learn the setup, entry and exit rules (which should exist); that you learn how to protect your trade with stops; and that you learn how to apply your method on a timely basis (be it hourly, daily or weekly) to get the most out of the method and to learn how all facets of what you learn work cooperatively to make you a better trader.

Remember, Simple but Powerful -- using just a few indicators or rules applied in a non-textbook approach -- is the key to getting an edge in the markets.

Speaking of an edge, my mate James is rolling out his brand new scalping system – well the system is not new by any means as he trades it on a daily basis. But it is the first time he is going to share it with anyone else.


You only have a few days left so check it out now at ...

traders-live.com/blog/


Speak soon,
Chris.

[thetradersclub]

EUR/USD
Weekly Trend direction: Bullish
Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2150
Key G7 support levels: 1.2500, 1.2430, 1.2380
Counter-trend and scalping opportunities: 1.2650/80

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Today's trade suggestion:
A strong rally and an “outside” bullish weekly candle suggest that the euro is set to rise again this week. After getting a good piece of both the euro and the pound rally last week, we can afford to be patient this week and wait for reasonable dips before buying the euro. Current support is at the levels listed above and we may have to wait a day or two before we get down to those levels. In fact, it is quite possible that we’ll retrace very little from the current price and continue to push higher towards 1.2650/80 before pausing. (good levels for counter trend
trades)

Summary:
Patiently wait for dips down to support levels before buying the euro after a clear G7 entry signal. Target 1.2650/80, where counter-trend shorts could be considered.

GBP/USD
Weekly Trend direction: Bullish
Weekly trend reversal level: 1.4870
Key G7 support levels: 1.5140/1.5100, 1.5050, 1.5000
Counter-trend opportunities: 1.5250

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level buy dips to support levels after an entry signal

Today's trade suggestion:
Interesting opportunities this week, above and below the current price. Let’s start with the trend direction, which
is bullish this week. Supports below us are quite clear with confluences of Fibonacci retracements, S/R lines and
Moving averages neatly in place. (see hourly chart) I’ll be looking to buy into dips to these levels are a clear G7
reversal signal for targets at 1.5250 and then, eventually, 1.5520. Now let’s consider the other side of the coin.
1.5250 is the 78.6% retracement of the weekly move (see weekly chart) and will offer stiff resistance to rallies.
Counter-trend selling opportunities here should see a move lower to at least 1.5150. I’ll be keeping a careful eye
on both the buying and selling chances this week.

Summary:
Look to buy into dips to support levels after a clear G7 signal, or sell into rallies to 1.5250 (counter-trend) after
a G7 reversal signal. Targets 100 pips either way.

Don't forget to take a look at my page http://www.traders-live.com/blog/ for more info on James's scalping systems starting tomorrow!

[thetradersclub]

Update: We edged a little higher yesterday, most of the move happening in the Asian session. This means we were not able to get hold of the trade. In any event, we’ll be patient and wait for the second chance this week, as/when the euro dips back down to support levels below. We are a long way from the nearest moving averages and Fibonacci lines, so it will be a little wait before we get a chance. Key supports lie at 1.2500/470 and 1.2400.
Watch and wait for a G7 entry signal before buying for a rally back to 1.2600.
Summary: Patiently wait for dips down to support levels before buying the euro after a clear G7 entry signal.Target 1.2600.

[DickP]

http://www.traders-live.com/blog/ good stuff !

[thetradersclub]

Thanks for that. Still got a long way to go, but I am slowly and surely getting on top of my sites and hope that the free info I share ...like on my other site...www.freeforex4all.com is useful to traders, along with these currency updates - albeit that we trade a specific system. I am sure the info pertaining to levels etc will help traders in general.
Cheers,
Chris.

[thetradersclub]

Today's report is in a video format and available at freeforex4all.com as usual.

There is also an interesting post and a video of yesterdays live trading session which has some brilliant trading tips and training in general.

Have a great weekend,
Cheers,

Chris.
P.S. not really allowed to post links so you need to add the www of course
freeforex4all.com

[thetradersclub]

EUR/USD
Weekly Trend direction: Bullish
Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2480
Key G7 support levels: 1.2570, 1.2520, 1.2480/2500
Counter-trend and scalping opportunities:
Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Today's trade suggestion:
Beaten down from the weekly trend-line as expected, but not “out” Allow for a bit more work under the trendline, and perhaps even a pull-back to 1.2300-1.2400. That having been said, we need to stay above the weekly reversal level at 1.2480 this week for the strong bullish momentum to continue, and we’ll look to buy into dips
whilst that is the case. Good support levels lie at 1.2570, 1.2520 and 1.2480/2500. Watch and wait for a clear G7 entry signal before buying the euro for a rally back to 1.2700. I suspect that the euro won’t be in a rush this week, so be patient – there will be plenty of time to pick your moment!

Summary: Patiently wait for dips down to support levels before buying the euro after a clear G7 entry signal.
Target 1.2600.

[thetradersclub]

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish
Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2480
Key G7 support levels: 1.2780, 1.2740, 1.2680
Counter-trend and scalping opportunities: 1.3120’ish

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Today's trade suggestion:
Beaten down from the weekly trend-line as expected, but not “out” Allow for a bit more work under the trendline, and perhaps even a pull-back to 1.2300-1.2400. That having been said, we need to stay above the weekly reversal level at 1.2480 this week for the strong bullish momentum to continue, and we’ll look to buy into dips whilst that is the case. Good support levels lie at 1.2570, 1.2520 and 1.2480/2500. Watch and wait for a clear G7 entry signal before buying the euro for a rally back to 1.2700. I suspect that the euro won’t be in a rush this week,
so be patient – there will be plenty of time to pick your moment!

Update: The Euro has finally broken the shackles of the weekly downward trend line and has had a good spurt of momentum moving higher. For today, there will be little chance to trade using the G7 system in the weekly direction, and picking tops with such a strong uptrend is dangerous. I’m going to wait for next week to re-assess
the charts. Aggressive trades may be tempted to pick a top (not recommended) and if you MUST, perhaps wait for a further rally to 1.3120 and wait for a CLEAR G7 counter-trend set-up.

Summary: Stay sidelined OR look for a counter-trend chance around 1.3120 after a clear G7 entry signal.

[thetradersclub]

EUR/USD
Weekly Trend direction: Bullish
Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2520
Key G7 support levels: 1.2820, 1.2760, 1.2700/20
Counter-trend and scalping opportunities:
Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Today's trade suggestion:
Capped at 1.3000, the euro is pausing a little before the next move higher to 1.3120. Weekly momentum remains bullish and we’ll continue to look to buy dips this week, whilst above the weekly reversal level at 1.2520. Notice that the weekly downward trend line has been conclusively broken, and this should also add fuel to a further move higher. Supports lie at 1.2820, 1.2760 and then around the 1.2700 mark. We must allow for a retest of the weekly trend-line from the top side – now acting as support, and this means we may experience a dip as low as 1.2700-1.2660. Targets for long trades are the big psychological barrier at 1.3000 and then onwards and upwards to 1.3120.

Summary: Buy dips to support levels listed above after a clear G7 entry signal, allowing for a retracement as far as 1.2660-1.2700. First target 1.3000 and then 1.3120.

[thetradersclub]

EUR/USD

Update: Moving down close to 1.2840 – the 38% retracement level – but no real signs of reversal just yet. We’ll allow for a further dip to the support levels listed above, which will take us down to the raft of technical supports below us. Be patient!

Summary: Buy dips to support levels listed above after a clear G7 entry signal,allowing for a retracement as far
as 1.2660-1.2700. First target 1.3000 and then 1.3120.

GBP/USD
Weekly Trend direction: Bullish
Weekly trend reversal level: 1.4950
Key G7 support levels: 1.5270, 1.5200/20, 1.5150, 1.5050
Counter-trend opportunities:

Strategy: above the weekly trend reversal level buy dips to support levels after an entry signal

Today's trade suggestion:
In sync with the other currencies as they strengthen vs. the US dollar. The pound has rallied sharply to a new recent high at 1.5472, and is probably due for a correction or consolidation. We have already retraced to the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.5270, but we’ll allow for a little more pullback to the next support level at 1.5200/20 provided by a raft of support at the 50% retracement level, previous high and the 200 period moving averages. Look to buy into dips to 1.5200/20, or perhaps even 1.5150 if the dollar gains a little support in the early part of this week. Wait for a clear G7 reversal signal, remembering the PAPA principle! Targets for long trades are 1.5400and then 1.5450.

Update: Pretty much on cue, with a good profit yesterday resulting from the bounce from 1.5200. Another chance to buy was seen at 1.5150 during the Asian session, and once again the pound has delivered. As we have seen plenty of action over the past 24 hours, it’s probably best to give the pound a break and focus on the other
pairs today.

Summary:
Buy dips to support levels after a clear G7 signal. Targets 1.5400 and then 1.5450. Staying out of this pair today.

[thetradersclub]

The sad fact is that most traders fail to make money, or even survive the first few months of trading due to two factors:

1. A poor trading system.
2. Poor money management

We can provide the first one for you – that’s the easy part! However, the second part is even more important and I want to show you what you can achieve if you do things the right way and if you follow a systematic money management approach.

I have prepared some Excel spreadsheets to show you how you can convert your small trading account into a substantial sum of money if you have a profitable trading system or profitable signals and if you know the three Keys to making money in Forex trading. But before we go through the spreadsheets, let’s briefly cover the three Keys to making money in trading Forex.

Key number 1: Managing risk per trade

Key number 2: Managing risk per account

Key number 3: Compounding profits

Ok, so let’s go through these keys one at a time. Let’s say you were able to get your hands on a profitable trading system or someone was willing to send you profitable trade alerts.

Would this mean that you would automatically make money trading your account?

No way!

The problem is that, as hard as it is to learn how to trade the market, it is even harder for most people to manage their account. This is mainly due to inexperience and wrong, emotional decisions. I can’t help with the emotional side (although there are some excellent books on the psychology of trading at available, but what I can help you with is gaining experience in converting a winning trade system or signals into money in the bank.

It’s all about money management.

Key number 1: Managing risk per trade

Trading involves risk. Every trade we take has a chance of being a winner and a chance of being a loser. There is simply nothing that will ever change that…

No-one knows where the market will go next with certainty.

What we can do is to develop systems which give us an edge of better than 50:50, and the systems we use win about 65-70% of the time. The other 30-35% of the time the trades are losers. This does not make the losing trades bad trades, but it simply means that the trades fell into the “good, but losing” group.

When a trade goes against us, the best thing to do is to close the trade for a relatively small loss and to wait for the next opportunity.

Many novice traders tend to hold onto losing trades, or even add to losing positions. This has a terrible effect on your account equity, risk of losing more and your emotional well being. Anyway, I don’t want to dwell on this subject, but I must stress that if you follow a trading system or signal, follow it

precisely. Do not risk more than the 30-50 pip stop loss employed and do not add to losing trades.

More about that later…

Part Two will be posted here on Tuesday next week...

This is part 1 of a 3 part series. If you would like this e-book sent to you directly, simply opt in on the traders-live site and you will receive this, along with another report or two and a complete video series.

Cheers for now,

Chris.