Alpari (UK)

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The second in the Trading Essentials webinar series.

The Trading Essentials series aims to equip you with the knowledge and information to become the best trader you can possibly be.
The next four webinars in this series will focus on more in-depth trading strategies, the new MetaTrader 5 platform as well as how to use Expert Advisors.

Details of the four webinars in the series are below:

1. US Economy and Election Fallout

This webinar will discuss the recent developments in the US economy. This can be a tough time for traders to find viable trading opportunities due to the global economy's reliance on the US. During this webinar we will look at the outlook for the US economy, the election results and how best to play this difficult time.

Monday 3rd Dec, 6pm
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2. MetaTrader 5 Tutorial

During the first webinar series we looked at the award winning MetaTrader 4 platform and some of its major attributes. In this webinar we look at the new MetaTrader 5 platform, covering basic techniques; buy, sell, stops and limits. We will then go into more detail about the major differences between the two platforms and which platform will work best for you

Friday 7th Dec, 6pm
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3. Using Expert Advisors (EAs)

One of the major reasons the MetaTrader 4 platform is so popular is due to the ability to use trading robots or expert advisors to place automated trades on your behalf. In this webinar we will cover the mechanics of EAs and show you exactly how to place them on your MT4 account as well as looking at some of the more popular strategies out there.

Monday 10th Dec, 6pm
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4. Advanced Charting and Technical Analysis

Charting and Technical Analysis can be a very complicated subject and can be daunting for those who have never paid much attention to the topic. However, to those more used to the techniques involved it can be the only trading tool they ever need. This webinar will look at charting techniques in more depth including strategies including oscillators and Fibonacci.

Friday 14th Dec, 6pm
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About James Hughes

James has 10 years experience in the financial services sector and is a well known market commentator appearing regularly in the financial media and on television channels such as the BBC, Sky News, CNBC and Bloomberg television. He also provides valuable insights and knowledge to clients through Alpari (UK)'s education and research programme.

[Alpari UK]

Forex research: Global markets daily

[Alpari UK]

Greek deal close as attention turns to today’s eurogroup meeting

Today’s UK opening call provides an update on:

* European markets expected to open lower as caution returns ahead of eurogroup meeting;
* Greek deal expected today, however traders prepare for further delays;
* Fiscal cliff remains greatest threat to the global economy, as deal remains weeks away.

European stock markets are expected to open lower this morning ahead of the eurogroup meeting of finance ministers.

Today’s meeting should confirm whether Greece’s future remains in the eurozone or not, with the latter having the potential to cause severe damage to the global economy. The only thing standing in the way of Greece receiving the next tranche of its bailout at the moment appears to be an agreement on its funding targets, however this is expected to be resolved in today’s discussions.

However, given the fact that we have expected this to be resolved on several occasions previously, it is no surprise that the markets are preparing for further delays and more eurogroup meetings. This, along with the fiscal cliff in the US and ongoing tensions in the middle east, continues to be the greatest threat to the global economy at this moment in time, which is why volatility remains so low.

An agreement here today would go some way to easing this uncertainty, potentially even causing a brief rally in the markets. However, the main concern continues to be the fiscal cliff in the US, with the two main parties appearing far from an agreement on how to avoid the $600 billion of spending cuts and tax hikes that would send them into recession next year.

There is no significant data due out today, meaning the market is going to be driven solely by the eurogroup meeting. This makes for a very slow start to the week but...

Read the full report at Alpari News Room

[Alpari UK]

Today Joshua Mahony discusses the impending decision within the Eurozone regarding the Greek aid package, along with thoughts regarding the US fiscal cliff & BoJ minutes. The charts being reviewed are EUR/USD and USD/JPY.



Forex research: Global markets daily

[Alpari UK]

Greek deal paves the way for future debt forgiveness

Today’s UK opening call provides an update on:

* Greek deal completed overnight;
* Greek debt to fall well below 110% of GDP by 2022;
* Markets jump on completion of the deal;
* Revised UK GDP figure due this morning.

Greece’s creditors reached a deal last night on how to make its debt more sustainable following weeks of negotiations.

The agreement will see Greece receive almost €44 billion of financial aid, starting with a payment on 13 December of €23.8 billion to recapitalise its banks and €10.6 billion for budget finances. This will follow a debt buy by Greece which will also be funded by its lenders.

On top of this, interest on Greece’s official loans will drop from 150 basis points over financing costs, to 50 basis points and is likely to fall again to 0 basis points above once Greece completes its adjustment program. There was also an agreement to extend the loan maturities by 15 years and defer its interest payments by 10 years.

Altogether, this should reduce Greece’s debt to GDP ratio to 124% by 2020, slightly above target, and then well below 110% by 2022, which suggests there will be some forgiveness on loans. These commitments by the Troika is what the markets have been waiting for over the last three years. This almost certainly closes the door to a Greek exit now and removes the uncertainty surrounding the issue.

The reaction to the deal has been minor so far but I expect it will pick up once the European and US markets open. This may suggest that a deal has already been priced in however we should still see more of a reaction throughout the day. As it stands, European stock market indices look like opening almost 1% higher.

This is also a major coup for the Greek government, led by Antonis Samaras, who have become very unpopular on home soil since coming into power earlier this year. However you can’t underestimate how significant this is for them.

The country was on the verge of collapse when they came to power. Now they have agreed on a large number of reforms and budget cuts in order to receive the backing of the Troika, which should lead to them regaining access to the debt markets in the future. There’s still a lot of pain ahead for Greece, but it has come a long way in a very short period of time.

The economic data out this morning focuses around the UK. Last month, the preliminary GDP figure beat even the most optimistic expectations, showing growth at 1% in the third quarter. The revised figure today is expected to...

Read the full report at Alpari News Room

[Alpari UK]

Craig Erlam talks about the Greek deal that was agreed between the IMF and the finance ministers over night, Mark Carney's appointment at the BoE and the OECD's growth forecasts for the UK. Finally he takes a look at the charts.



Forex research: Global markets daily

[Alpari UK]

Stocks markets under pressure as fiscal cliff talks stagnate

Today’s UK opening call provides an update on:

* European markets lower on fiscal cliff concerns;
* Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid claims little progress in fiscal cliff talks;
* Stocks remain under pressure but losses are likely to be limited;
* Economic calendar relatively quiet today.

European stock markets are expected to open lower this morning as attention shifts back to the fiscal cliff in the US.

Yesterday there was an initial relief rally following the conclusion of talks between the IMF and the eurozone finance ministers, who agreed on a deal to make Greece’s debt more sustainable. The rally was short lived though, with most gains priced into the market during discussions the week before.

From now until the end of the year, everything is likely to revolve around the fiscal cliff. Greece is temporarily safe, Spain has completed its funding needs for the year and already started raising funds for next and the Chinese slow down appears to have bottomed out.

Last night, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid put pressure on stocks claiming there had been little progress in dealing with the fiscal cliff. This is hardly surprising giving Congresses previous attempts to agree on the debt ceiling last year, however it is concerning given the potential consequences of going over the cliff and the impending deadline.

We can expect to see stock markets remain under pressure between now and when the deal is brokered, however that isn’t to say that we’ll see significant losses. In much the same way that a Greek deal was expected at some point, the same is true of the fiscal cliff.

If investors are expecting a deal they may continue to act with caution, however a deal would prompt a stock market rally and everyone is very aware of that. It is less a case of if the markets will rally and more a case of when.

Looking ahead to today and it is expected to be...

Read the full report at Alpari News Room

[Alpari UK]

Craig Erlam talks about the comments made by Harry Reid on the progress being made over the fiscal cliff, Greece and the key events this afternoon. He then takes a look at the currency charts.



Forex research: Global markets daily

[Alpari UK]

Europe to open higher as Obama sets ambitious deadline for fiscal cliff talks

Today's UK opening call provides an update on:

• Stock markets expected to open higher following Obama comments;
• UK housing data expected to highlight lack of improvement in economic conditions;
• German unemployment spikes for a second month as eurozone's strongest economy is gripped by the debt crisis.
European markets are expected to open higher this morning after Barack Obama delivered some encouraging words in the US last night.

Stock indices are expected to follow the lead from the US, where the S&P, Nasdaq and Dow all ended the session almost 1% higher. The change came after Barack Obama claimed he wanted a deal to be reached by Christmas,the first time anyone has seriously talked about resolving this before the 1 January 2013 deadline.

This is only a week before however it does indicate a willingness to get it resolved as quickly as possible and lot leave it until the last minute, as we saw last year which ultimately cost the US its triple A rating. It also came after House Speaker John Boehner stated that he believed a deal would be agreed, so all in all, the comments on the day all looked positive.

Of course, this doesn't actually change anything and in no way guarantees a deal by Christmas. In fact, a deal probably won't be done by Christmas, this is more likely an attempt by Barack Obama to put pressure on the Republicans to soften their stance, however as long as these comments continue to be reported, the markets will react to them.

There is plenty of economic data out today that could produce some volatility, however just as with the last couple of months, no big swings are likely until we see some progress in the fiscal cliff talks.

Early this morning, the UK Nationwide HPI figure for November is expected to show a 0.2% increase in house prices. These figures have been mixed in recent years which suggests we're not seeing the improvement in the housing market that would indicate anything more than marginal economic growth in the UK, which is largely in line with other economic data.

German unemployment is expected to have increased by 15,000 in October following a surprisingly large jump the month before, highlighting again that Germany is suffering as a result of...

Read the full report at Alpari News Room

[Alpari UK]

Forex research: Global markets daily

[Alpari UK]

Europe expected to open lower as fiscal cliff talks turn sour

Today’s UK opening call provides an update on:

* Europe expected to open lower as negotiations over fiscal cliff turn sour;
* Draghi due to speak at the French Treasury this morning;
* French and German data not expected to bode well for recession hit eurozone;
* Eurozone unemployment expected to creep higher once again.

Talks in the US over how to avoid the fiscal cliff have begun, as has the political bickering that is likely to drag them out all the way to the 1 January deadline.

European stock markets are expected to open slightly lower this morning as discussions once again turned sour between the two major parties. Early indications suggest the parties are far from in agreement in many areas, which was confirmed by House Speaker John Boehner who claimed no substantive progress had been made.

Mario Draghi is due to speak at the French Treasury this morning which is likely to attract a lot of attention, coming only days after the Greek deal was signed off. People are going to be looking for more clarity on the deal which will see Greece receive further funding and cut its debt to significantly less than 110% of GDP by 2022.

These deals have a knack of looking like the real deal to begin with but once picked apart, are far from sufficient. We have already seen that the IMF involvement is conditional on Greece completing a bond buyback, which shouldn’t be an issue as long as they can access the funds, however it will be interesting to see if Mr Draghi reveals any other holes in the deal.

There’s plenty of economic data for the markets to get their teeth into today starting in the eurozone with the German retail sales. Germany has continued to experience slowing growth in recent months and October’s retail sales are expected to tell much the same story. A drop of 0.3% is expected, the fourth negative figure in the last six months, while September’s figure has already been revised significantly lower to 0.8% from 1.5% originally.

French consumer spending is not expected to paint a much better picture, with a drop of 0.1% expected for October, following a slight improvement the month before. This does not bode well for the eurozone, which is heavily reliant on its two strongest economies to drag it out of recession in 2013, something that at this moment looks highly unlikely.

The eurozone jobless rate isn’t expected to throw up any surprises later on this morning, creeping higher to 11.7% in October. On a more positive note though...

Read the full report at Alpari News Room

[Alpari UK]

Craig Erlam talks about the fiscal cliff negotiations and today's economic data then takes a look at the charts.



Forex research: Global markets daily

[Alpari UK]

European markets higher on improved Chinese manufacturing

Today’s UK opening call provides an update on:

* European stocks markets higher on improving Chinese manufacturing data;
* Greece to announce bond buyback plans;
* Lower trading volumes expected as fiscal cliff talks continue;
* Jobs report on Friday unlikely to have usual impact.
* Manufacturing figures in Europe expected to show further contraction.

European stock markets are expected to open around a quarter of a percentage point higher this morning.

Chinese manufacturing has shown signs of slowing this year, with both the HSBC and official PMI’s contracting on numerous occasions. Both appear to be in the recovery phase now which is extremely positive for the markets, with the global economy reliant on a strong China to drive the recovery.

The official figure released on Saturday showed the fastest rate of growth in the Chinese manufacturing sector since April, while this morning’s HSBC showed the fastest rate of growth since September last year. On top if this, both October figures were revised higher further suggesting that the Chinese economy will finish the year strongly.

Greece will announce details of its bond buyback today, the completion of which will meet the conditions set by the IMF for the country to receive the next tranche of its bailout on 13 December. We could see a small reaction to this in the European markets, however it has mostly been priced in and focus is mainly on the US now as we approach the fiscal cliff.

Stock markets are likely to see lower volumes this week as fiscal cliff talks continue between the president and congress. As it stands, minimal progress has been made in negotiations with both parties refusing to budge on tax and spending issues. This looks set to continue this week unless we see a genuine attempt by both parties to come to an agreement on how to avoid the damaging combination of $600 billion of tax hikes and spending cuts, due to begin on 1 January.

Even the jobs report at the end of the week is expected to have a mush smaller market impact than usual. Investors are very aware that the labour market is improving a gradual pace and on top of this, the figures are likely to be distorted by...

Read the full report at Alpari News Room

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Craig Erlam talks about the manufacturing PMI's released so far today and the eurogroup meeting. He then takes a look at the currency charts.



Forex research: Global markets daily

[Alpari UK]

Europe expected to open lower on fiscal cliff fears

Today’s UK opening call provides an update on:

* Stock markets lower on fiscal cliff concerns as White House quickly rejects Republican plan on raising taxes;
* Obama takes to Twitter to raise support and put pressure on Congress;
* RBA cuts cash rate by 25 basis points;
* Spanish unemployment expected to continue to rise.

Stock markets are trading lower this morning as concerns continue to grow that fiscal cliff discussions are not progressing as expected.

So far there has been a lot of public political bickering between the Democrats and the Republicans with each blaming the other for a lack of progress so far. Last night it was Obama’s turn to point the finger at the Republicans after the White House rejected a plan that suggested increasing tax revenues through closing special-interest loopholes and deductions.

The plan would seek to raise $800 billion dollars however it was rejected as it did not highlight which loopholes and deductions should be closed.

A complete lack of cooperation by both parties in these negotiations is now prompting many to consider something that seemed inconceivable only a couple of months ago, what if we just go over the cliff? This would of course be terrible news for the markets and would see them fall well back from their recent highs, however the impact on the economy may not be as bad as first thought.

The biggest concern being the tax hikes, which make up the bulk of the $600 billion, could be renegotiated after the 1 January deadline. It is likely to be much easier to come to an agreement on tax cuts for a large chunk of Americans that takes hikes for some. On the flip side of this though, the uncertainty for businesses could prompt further redundancies and a lack of investment which would have a negative effect on the jobless rate and economy as a whole.

It may be too early to consider this as a realistic possibility though. While there may be other ways around it, there’s no doubt the overall effects would be negative for the US economy at a time of moderate recovery. That’s why Barack Obama took to Twitter last night in a bid to answer people’s questions on the fiscal cliff and put pressure on Congress to come to an agreement.

The Reserve Bank of Australia cut its cash rate over night by 25 basis points to 3%, as expected. The move, which was originally expected last month, highlights the central banks concerns that a slowing global economy, falling commodity prices and a strong Aussie dollar are dragging on the Australian economy.

However...

Read the full report at Alpari News Room

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Craig Erlam talks about the meeting of the EU finance ministers, the fiscal cliff and the RBA's decision to cut interest rates. He then takes a look at the currency charts.



Forex research: Global markets daily

[Alpari UK]

Today’s UK opening call provides an update on:

* George Osborne to deliver half-yearly budget statement which will include more austerity;
* Services PMI in the eurozone expected to show strong contraction in November;
* Improved Spanish bond yields to be reflected in sale of 10-year debt.

Stock markets are expected to open higher this morning ahead of George Osborne’s Autumn forecast statement.

The UK Chancellor is expected to announce that the country is on course to miss its deficit reduction targets this year. This is likely to see the austerity program extended by an extra year to 2018 which is going to be extremely unpopular given the lack of growth already being observed, having only just come out of double dip recession.

Osborne is expected to offset the spending cuts and tax increases with £5 billion of fresh spending on schools and transport which will not come from further borrowing. While this could help, it is likely to be overlooked with people focusing on the fact that their incomes are going to be squeezed for another 12 months if current forecasts are accurate, although it is likely to be even longer.

This morning, services PMI’s will be released out of the eurozone and the UK and are unlikely to make for pleasant reading for the former. Just as we saw earlier in the week, figures in the mid 40′s are expected in the eurozone, with Spain even worse following the harsh austerity we have seen there this year.

In the UK, we should see a slight improvement in the services sector which has been surprisingly resilient in recent years, having only slipped into contraction territory on one occasion in the last three and a half years. November’s figure is expected to be around 51.1.

Spanish bond yields have shown significant improvement in recent months and are currently trading with yields just above 5% on the secondary market. Today will be a big test of sentiment when the country sells up to €4.5 billion of three, seven and ten year debt as part of its funding for 2013, having already completed its funding needs for this year.

The euro is trading higher against the dollar this morning. The pair found strong resistance around 1.31 yesterday from the descending trend line dating back to the middle of September. It has broken above here already this morning which suggests...

Read the full report at Alpari News Room

[Alpari UK]

Forex research: Global markets daily

[Alpari UK]

Since the Christmas and New Year holiday season is coming up in the UK, here you can find our opening hours during this period.





All times are GMT (UK time).

We wish you merry Christmas and a happy new year.

If you have any questions, please contact our Client Services at [email protected] or call +44 (0)20 7426 2900 (07:00-22:00 UK time, Monday-Friday before the holidays).

________
Alexander Chadwick
Alpari (UK) Representative

[Alpari UK]

BoE expected to keep rates and QE on hold as ECB lowers growth forecasts

Today’s UK opening call provides an update on:

* Stock markets to open higher on positive Obama comments;
* BoE likely to keep rates and asset purchases on hold;
* ECB growth forecasts expected to be revised lower, with rates kept on hold;
* Spain back in the spotlight following an unsuccessful debt auction.

Stock markets are expected to open higher this morning after Barack Obama raised hopes of a speedy resolution to the fiscal cliff negotiations.

Obama claimed yesterday that a deal on the cliff could be done within a week as long as Republicans accept the expiration of Bush-era tax cuts on the top 2%, a move that would raise $800 billion over the next 10 years. The market reaction to this was positive but it may just be another case of getting ahead of ourselves, Republicans don’t look close to accepting these tax hikes.

The BoE will hold its monthly meeting this morning, however nothing is expected to change again this month. The most recent round of asset purchases expired last month and the MPC members were unable to agree on whether further purchases would be of benefit to the economy.

The same is expected again today, with further stimulus not expected until the first quarter of 2013, despite lowered growth forecasts yesterday from the OBR and expectations that the UK could contract in the fourth quarter. The interest rate is also expected to remain at 0.5%, having not been changed since March 2009.

The ECB meeting is unlikely to be much different, with interest rates again expected to remain unchanged. This is despite the eurozone falling into recession in the third quarter and inflation dropping to its lowest level last month since January 2011.

Mario Draghi is expected to announce revisions to the ECB’s previous growth forecasts, something we have become accustomed to in recent years and no longer has the wow factor that it once did. We could also hear more about the Greek deal that has going some way to convincing the markets that the worst of the crisis is behind us.

However, just as we’ve seen in the past few years, rather than being satisfied with the Greek deal, the markets have simply put...

Read the full report at Alpari News Room