Alpari (UK)

[Alpari UK]

Pivotal week ahead for the eurozone as earning take back seat

Today’s UK Opening Call provides an update on:

* Greece expected to submit spending cuts to EU leaders before summit;
* Spain could request bailout this week;
* Citigroup reporting Q3 earnings before US open;
* Dollar starts the week higher.

Corporate earnings are likely to take a back seat this week ahead of the EU summit on Thursday and Friday.

This could be a pivotal week for the eurozone. Before the EU summit on Thursday, Greece is expected to submit its spending cuts worth €13.5 billion to the EU leaders. If agreed upon by the EU, the next tranche of the bailout will be released, essentially funding Greece past November.

This is expected to be accompanied by a bailout request fromSpain. There has been a lot of pressure on Mariano Rajoy’s government to request a bailout ever since the ECB announced the OMT’s at the start of September. It is believed that Rajoy has delayed making the request until now at the request of Germany.

These could be major steps by the eurozone in settling the markets again. There has been a lot of uncertainty over the past month...

Read the full report at Alpari News Room

[Alpari UK]

Forex research: Global markets daily

[Alpari UK]

Portugal condemned to third year of recession

Today’s UK Opening Call provides an update on:

* Stocks open higher this morning despite little reaction to positive earnings and data yesterday;
* CPI figure could open the door to further asset purchases next month;
* Confidence expected to remain low in Germany among analysts and investors;
* Portugal condemned to a third year of recession;
* Euro targets 1.3171 as it nears double bottom formation.

Stocks made only moderate gains yesterday despite better than expected US data and corporate earnings.

This would suggest that the eurozone is still at the forefront of everyone’s minds this week. The EU summit on Thursday and Friday is all investors seem to care about at the moment. It is not often that we see such positive retail sales data and corporate earnings go relatively unnoticed.

The UK CPI figure for September will be released this morning and is expected at 2.2%. This would be the lowest inflation figure in almost three years prompting further asset purchases by the MPC at their next meeting in November. It is widely expected that the BOE will increase asset purchases by £50 billion next month with current purchases expiring in November.

The UK is expected to have come out of recession in the third quarter but...

Read the full report at Alpari News Room

[Alpari UK]

Craig Erlam talks about the key economic data releases today and what they mean for monetary policy in the UK and US for the rest of the year. He then takes a look at the currency charts and talks about US corporate earnings.



Forex research: Global markets daily

[Alpari UK]

BoE minutes to provide insight into November meeting

Today’s UK Opening Call provides an update on:

* Technology shares expected to open lower despite improved earnings;
* MPC minutes could hint at further QE in theUK;
* Unemployment expected to remain at 8.1% while jobless claims expected to fall;
* Euro breaks above neckline after forming double bottom.

Stocks traded higher yesterday after strong third quarter earnings and improved economic data provided a boost for investors.

Earnings reported after the close in the US were not as positive though. Intel’s revenue was down from a year earlier at $13.46 billion, however it did still beat expectations along with earnings. IBM reported lower revenues for the third quarter than a year ago with earnings slightly beating expectations.

Despite better earnings from both companies, the reaction in the markets was negative as a result of both companies lowering forecasts for the fourth quarter. This suggests we’re going to see similar warnings from the rest of the industry.

This morning the minute will be released from the MPC meeting earlier this month. There were no surprises at this meeting with asset purchases and the interest rate both remaining at £375 billion and 0.5% respectively.

However...

Read the full report at Alpari News Room

[Alpari UK]

Craig Erlam talks about Moody's decision not to downgrade Spain, the idea out of Germany to have a currency commissioner in the eurozone and today's corporate earnings. He also takes a look at the currency charts and highlights some key levels.



Forex research: Global markets daily

[Alpari UK]

EU Summit set to disappoint as China data bucks the trend

Today’s UK Opening Call provides an update on:

The start of the EU summit

* Spanish and Greek economies and
* Chinese GDP and Industrial Production figures

Today is the start of the EU summit and it’s expected to be just as disappointing as the rest.

It was hoped earlier this week that Greece will have struck a deal with the Troika in order to receive the next tranche of the bailout. This would have then been signed off at the summit, however this is now very unlikely. There were also reports that Spain were going to request a bailout before the summit, but this also appears unlikely to happen.

Spain will auction 10-year bonds today, 24 hours after Moody’s affirmed Spain’s credit rating at Baa3, one notch above junk status. Spanish yields fell heavily following Moody’s report, with 10-year bonds trading 34 basis points lower at the European close.

This is a positive sign for Mariano Rajoy who has failed to gather support since taking the reins earlier this year. This suggests...

Read the full report at Alpari News Room

[Alpari UK]

Forex research: Global markets daily

[Alpari UK]

Slow start expected in Europe after another disappointing summit

Today’s UK Opening Call provides an update on:

* Corporate earnings season continues today after difficult start;
* Caterpillar to kick off the week before the opening bell;
* Slow start expected in Europe after another disappointing summit;
* Dollar trades lower this morning, paring Friday’s gains.

US corporate earnings will take centre stage again this week after a poor start to the reporting period.

It has been a tough couple of weeks for US companies. Despite the numerous profit warnings we saw in the lead up to the earnings season, investors have been surprised by the poor results seen so far. Third quarter earnings in technology stocks have highlighted the tough conditions in the US, leaving it to Apple to pick up the slack when it reports this week.

Caterpillar will kick the week off, reporting before the US opening bell. The company is expected to announce an improved earnings per share of $2.24, compared to $1.71 in the same quarter a year ago. This afternoon Yahoo are expected to report slightly improved earnings on a year ago of $0.26 per share.

Europe is expected to have a slow start this morning. Last week’s EU summit failed to inspire the markets after little was achieved. There was no update on Spain or Greece and promises of having a banking supervisor in place next year only acted as a reminder that...

Read the full report at Alpari News Room

[Alpari UK]

Craig Erlam talks about the rumours that Spain are preparing a bailout request and the US corporate earnings. He also takes a look at the currency charts where we've seen some significant breakouts.



Forex research: Global markets daily

[Alpari UK]

Final debate leaves the race neck and neck

Today’s UK Opening Call provides an update on:

* European shares show little movement following disappointing summit last week;
* Merkel to reward Greece’s efforts;
* Facebook to report after the closing bell;
* Final presidential debate leaves the race neck and neck;
* Dollar edges higher in the Asian session.

Stocks are expected to open slightly higher in Europe.

It was hoped that the EU summit last week was going to highlight the progress being made in the eurozone. Greece was expected to have agreed on cuts and reforms with the Troika by the summit which could then be signed off. Meanwhile it was rumoured that Spain would also request a bailout and take advantage of the ECB’s new bond buying program.

Neither of these were achieved at the summit leaving investors once again disappointed at the lack of urgency. This was an opportunity for the eurozone to stand up and demonstrate their commitment to the euro and silence their doubters. Once again they opted against this, instead offering an empty commitment to the formation of a single supervisory body by next year, a similar commitment to what we heard in June but with a later deadline.

While the summit was a disappointment, there were hopes overnight that...

Read the full report at Alpari News Room

[Alpari UK]

Craig Erlam talks about the new central bank growth estimate for Spain, Moody's downgrade of five Spanish regions, the presidential debate and the US corporate earnings. He then takes a look at the currency charts.



Forex research: Global markets daily

[Alpari UK]

Dear trader,

Please remember that due to the end of Daylight Saving Time in the UK and Europe on Sunday, 28 October 2012, the opening and closing times of certain markets will be affected until the end of Daylight Saving Time in the US on Sunday, 4 November 2012.

The products affected and the trading times are:





________
Alexander Chadwick
Alpari (UK) Representative

[Alpari UK]

Chinese manufacturing improves suggesting better times ahead

Today’s UK Opening Call provides an update on:

* Stock markets fell yesterday as earnings bring prices back in line with reality;
* Uncertainty ahead with presidential elections looming;
* Apple unveils the iPad mini;
* Chinese manufacturing nears growth after a year of contraction;
* Risk averse traders continue to seek safe haven dollar.

Stocks are expected to open higher this morning after suffering heavy losses yesterday, as corporate earnings began to bring prices back in line with reality.

For the last few months, we’ve watched at the stock market has rallied well beyond the true value of the companies we continue to invest in. This was driven by central banks filling the financial system with liquidity.

Now we’re getting a reality check. Revenues are falling and companies are warning of difficult quarters ahead, with the two main threats being the eurozone and the fiscal cliff in the US. Until we see the former make significant progress and the latter resolved, the current rally cannot possibly be sustained without the markets creating a huge artificial bubble that must burst.

There’s going to be a very uncertain couple of weeks ahead. Not only do we have more corporate earnings to be reported, there is also...

Read the full report at Alpari News Room

[Alpari UK]

Craig Erlam talks about the key economic data out this morning and what it means for the markets. He then talks about Mario Draghi's trip to Berlin to defend the OMT's and Germany's Bund auction this morning. Finally he takes a look at the charts.



Forex research: Global markets daily

[Alpari UK]

UK expected to storm out of recession in Q3

Today’s UK Opening Call provides an update on:

* Draghi’s meeting at the Bundestag went as good as it could have;
* Greece’s Finance Minister claims two year victory;
* Data expected to show UK came out recession in Q3;
* Fed keeps rates and asset purchases steady;
* Apple and Amazon report this evening.

Stocks are expected to open lower in Europe this morning.

Mario Draghi met with German lawmakers yesterday to clarify details and ease concerns over the ECB’s new Outright Monetary Transactions. Even the most optimistic of us had low expectations ahead of this meeting. There has been furious opposition to the bond buying program in Germany due to fears of the inflationary impact and the risk to taxpayers.

While Draghi by no means allayed all fears, he did gain the respect of many in Germany for his eagerness to clarify the situation, while plenty of lawmakers were also satisfied with his answers. Convincing the masses, including Jens Weidmann, still looks like an impossible task at the moment.

While little is likely to change from this, the fact that Draghi came away from this without strong objections is a major win for the ECB president. Also...

Read the full report at Alpari News Room

[Alpari UK]

Craig Erlam talks about today's UK GDP figure, the two day FOMC meeting, Mario Draghi's meeting at the Bundestag, the Greek talks with the Troika and Apple. He then takes a look at the charts.



Forex research: Global markets daily

[Alpari UK]

Spanish unemployment expected to rise above one in four

Today’s UK Opening Call provides an update on:

* Stocks lower on poor corporate earnings;
* Apple results miss expectations;
* Unemployment in Spain expected rise above 25%;
* GDP figure expected to show moderate growth in the US.

Stock markets in Europe are expected to open lower as corporate earnings continue to drag on sentiment.

Expectations were low heading into the season after numerous companies issues profit warnings in the weeks before. However while earnings haven’t been too bad, revenues have been very disappointing this quarter. On top of this there have been warnings about revenues in the quarters ahead, with many companies concerned about the debt crisis in the eurozone and fiscal cliff in the US.

Apple became the latest technology firm to release disappointing third quarter results. Despite reporting earnings of $8.67 per share, up from $7.05 a year earlier, and revenues of $36 billion, a 27% jump from a year earlier, shares are expected to drop after the opening bell as both missed estimates.

The miss was due to lower iPhone sales as consumers held off on buying the handset once rumours began about the the iPhone 5, which was released at the end of the quarter. The lower sales are expected to...

Read the full report at Alpari News Room

[Alpari UK]

Eurozone to take back seat as we near US presidential election

Today’s UK Opening Call provides an update on:

* Investors likely to show caution ahead of the US presidential election;
* Corporate earnings season disappoints on revenues and outlooks;
* Eurozone to take back seat, as Greece continues negotiations with the Troika;
* UK Net Lending to Individuals expected to have picked up last month.

It promises to be another busy week in the markets as we near the US presidential election.

Despite being a busy week, the markets are likely to lack volatility compared to what we’re used to seeing during the corporate earnings season. The election result is going to have a major impact on the markets over the next few years which is going to add an element of caution in the markets this week.

We also have non-farm payrolls and the unemployment figure on Friday. These are even more important this month, with employment being a key issue in the election campaign. A significant swing in either direction is likely to be heavily reported in the media, potentially swinging the undecided voter.

We are now half way through the corporate earnings season and stock indices are beginning to edge lower, especially in the US where they recently hit multi-year highs. The earnings season has so far been disappointing with...

Read the full report at Alpari News Room

[Alpari UK]

Please be aware that due to Hurricane Sandy which is approaching the east coast of the United States, the trading hours of some of our products will be affected today, 29 October 2012.

Derivatives and futures exchange, CME Group, has informed us that they will cease trading in US equity futures and options at 8:15 US Central Time (13:15 UK time, 15:15 MetaTrader/EET time).

This will affect the following Alpari (UK) products:
Wall Street 30 – US30
US 500 – US500
US Tech 100 – NQ100

We’re not yet aware of any changes to trading hours tomorrow, but we will inform you once the times have been updated.

If you have any questions, please don’t hesitate to contact our Client Services team at [email protected] or call +44 (0)20 7426 2900 (Mon-Fri 07:00-22:00 UK time).

________
Alexander Chadwick
Alpari (UK) Representative