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Since Jack Kennedy asked “not what the country could do for you,” the stock market has been up in 35 years (measured starting on Inauguration day or the first day of trading after the 20th of January and going through to the next 1/20) and down in 15. In other words, there is a 30% chance of a down year. It has been up by double-digit percentages in 24 years, so the probability of a good year (a positive double digit return) is 48%.
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