Rally Time

[tradingtm]

Friday’s stock indices all closed markedly higher, which came after huge higher gap opens. What happened in between the higher gap opens and the close was nothing. The markets were dead…until the closing bell. Only then was there life when the markets went even higher on a short covering explosion.

ZeroHedge has a good recap of the action here http://www.zerohedge.com/news/brian-...ft-wall-street

Stocks opened around 2% gap higher this morning after the late-night headlines from Europe made many think that the tooth-fairy and Santa are real once again. S&P 500 e-mini futures saw some selling into the open but then stabilized amid a very narrow range for much of the rest of the day - leaking higher on low volume-driven short-covering. The news from Germany of ESM ratification was greeted with absolutely no price movement as an indication of just how insane things are but the need to drive stocks up in the last few minutes was crazy. Into the close, volume exploded as ES rose 10pts in minutes from absolutely nowhere. Average trade size was very heavy during this period and delta skewed notably to block selling into the ramp though it is never that obvious. ES closed above its 50DMA back to its highest since 5/8.

The Window-Dressing Roadmap

It would appear that the No 'New' QE from the FOMC on 6/20 left a lot of all-important funds long-and-very-wrong. Today's rampfest miraculously lifted (window-dressing) Energy and Financials (two of the MOST sensitive sectors to QE) back to perfectly unchanged from the exact time of the FOMC announcement. Notably, since that exact time 'safe' sectors of Staples, Healthcare, and Utilities have outperformed as Tech, Materials, and Discretionary are underperforming (though all did their very best to end the month up (especially relative to the FOMC news moment)... fascinating eh?

While stocks exuded every bit of total insanity, Treasuries ended the week lower in yield across the whole complex (leaving Gold, the Long Bond, and the USD all almost perfectly +2.8% YTD). WTI is down 14.5% YTD to close Q2 thanks to a huge VW-like 9% squeeze higher today (that acounted in correlated risk terms for around half of equity's performance) up to around $85. Equity and HY credit have recoupled but HYG is the most expensive relative to its fair-value in over a month. The USD plunged on EUR strength (and AUD carry trades) to end the week -0.66% but Gold and Silver more than doubled those implied gains ending the week +1.8%. VIX tested below 17% late on but ended above it (down 2.6 vols) closing at 6/20 closing levels. The main takeaway is that most risk assets recovered to last week's highs but stocks turned the amplifier of insanity to 11 and pushed back to near two-month highs not to be outdone into quarter-end (wink wink).

Trade well and follow the trend, not the so-called “experts.”
_________
Larry Levin
President & Founder - TradingAdvantage

[henryduncan12]

Thanks Larry to share useful post about Rally Time. It is much helpful for me.