Daily Market Reviews by UWCFX

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EURO LOWEST IN TWO YEARS

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments

Growth worries after sluggish US job data, took the Euro/USD to its lowest level in two years. The Euro dropped to 1.2225 in early Asiantrade to recover somewhat. It is now trading at 1.2292. Asian shares fall. The MCXI index is down 1,50 %. Cooling inflation numbers from China deepened worries about slower economic growth. The Euro fell as deep as to 1,2225 in early trade in Asia. The US dollar vexes muscles and is gaining towards all currencies. Oil prices are relatively strong with Brent trading at 98,89.

Commodity linked currencies as the Australian and New Zealand dollars, which is a good barometer on the risk appetite in the market, hit one-week lows. The British pound, GBP, is trading below 1,55 towards the USD. Commodity prices continue to fall as do precious metals. Gold is at 1580. Silver just above 27.

Euro zone finance ministers are meeting in Brussels today in an effort to follow up the EU summit decisions a week ago. On the top of the agenda is a rescue plan for Europe’s struggling banks. Bailout requests from Spain and Cyprus shall be considered. The new Greek government has signaled renegotiations in an effort to obtain better terms and conditions to sugar its austerity measures towards a critical public.

The earnings season in the US start with quarterly report cards from blue chip stocks as Alcoa and J. P. Morgan next week. There is no big optimism. Europe’s crisis continues to draw much attention, but with little clarity as to how the euro zone’s debt and banking problems will be fixed. That in spite of numerous meetings as the Finance ministers coming up today.

Copyright: United World Capital

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Euro 30 billion for Spanish bail-out

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments

The Euro zone ministers of finance yesterday night decided to transfer Euro 30 Billion as a bail out of the striving Spanish banks. The first tranche shall be released in August. By injecting the bail-out funds directly into the banks, this is a banking and not a sovereign state bail out as is the case with Greece. The ministers simultaneously are considering a similar bail-out of Euro 6,1 Billion to the striving Cypriot banks. This is eventually going to be executed in September.

The bail-out of the Spanish banks are a direct following up of decisions taken by the EU-summit ten days ago. It came after the interest rate on Spanish bonds yesterday again went through the critical 7 % level. The initiative of the finance ministers helped to stabilize the Euro, which during early trading on Monday hit its lowest level in 2 years. Euro/USD is trading at 1.2300. The USD has weakened marginally over the last 24 hours. The Japanese Yen has strengthened. USD/JPY is at 79,495. Oil prices have fallen. Brent is at 98,65. Gold and silver stabile with an upward trend.

Stock exchanges in Europe, US and Asia continues to fall. The giant alloy producer, Alcoa, started the quarterly season by reporting better than expected results due to new orders from the car and airplane industry. Chinese numbers for import and export in June show weaker domestic demand, which seems to indicate that the GDP shall fall below 8 % when figures are released in a week. Import figures rose with 6 % much below experts forecasts. Export rose 11 %, higher than forecasts, but lower than May’s 14 %. China has once again a record surplus on its trading balance.

The Finance ministers’ decision has calmed markets somewhat, but there are increasing signs that Europe’s economic and monetary union may be fragmenting faster than policy makers can repair. Spanish, Greek and Italian banks have seen a deposit flight gaining pace. Whether a euro zone agreement to lend Madrid Euro 30 of the 100 Billion requested, will reverse these flows, is still an open question. It is expected that national bond rates and the Euro shall come under renewed pressure during the week.

Copyright: United World Capital

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Grim sentiments impact markets

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments

Asian and Australian stocks dropped for the fifth day in row Wednesday as concerns over Italy’s debt, profit warnings and US corporate earnings damaged regional sentiment. Dow Jones Industrial average closed down 0,78 % on fear that the global economic slowdown will erode corporate earnings.

The EURO/USD fall yesterday, but has recovered trading at 1.2257 in Asia. The Japanese yen continues to strengthen: USD/JPY at 79,3227. The strong yen put pressure on Japanese exports and the Nikkei. Gold dropped from 1600 yesterday, trading at 1573. Oil prices are slightly down. Brent at 98,35. There are no major changes in the overall currencies picture.

Europe returned to the forefront of investors concerns when Italian Prime Minister, Mario Monti, indicated that he will ask European governments to permit that the bailout fund to buy Italian bonds. Monti insisted, however, that Italy do not need a bailout in the scale of Greece. His comments come, however, just weeks after claims that Italy would not ask its European partners to buy Italian debts.

US experienced a new broker scandal when the Iowa-based PFGBest was the latest future broker to collapse. Regulators accused PFG and its owner for over the last two years misappropriating customer funds. In England, new aspects of The Barclays scandal are revealed, portraying a banking culture of greed and mutual accusations.

Copyright: United World Capital

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Oil prices increase on stimulus expectations

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments

Oil prices jumped 2 % yesterday on hopes for stimulus measures and falling US storages. Brent rose above the 100 dollar mark pr. Barrel, and NYMEX traded at 85,50. Euro/USD is continuing its downward trend at 1.224. Higher unemployment figures from Australia put the Aussie dollar under pressure. The South Korean Central bank has written down interest rate in an effort to encourage growth.

While the direction of future Federal Reserve initiatives remains unclear, investors seem to expect that China shall undertake new measures to boost its economy. China is expected to release new GDP numbers on Friday. Preliminary figures indicate that GDP expansion would be the weakest in 3 years. China has reduced interest rate twice during the last month, and new stimulus measures are expected.

Minutes from Federal Reserve’s meeting in June suggest that the US economy has to worsen before FED is going to consider a third round of bond buying. Such a step would weaken the dollar and re-energize the appetite for risk and dollar nominated commodities. The European debt crisis and the grim outlook for the world economy have dramatically decreased the demand for most commodities.

Oil has been hit hard falling 25 – 30 % from its high in the beginning of the tear. The positive movement in oil prices over the last days help by shrinking US-storages, a Norwegian oil strike and Iranian worries, might indicate a turnaround in other commodities. US quantitative easing would surely contribute to such a rebound.

The euro zone crisis starts to take new tolls. The CEO of Bank of Cyprus, the biggest bank in the island, resigned yesterday amidst increasing criticism for his bank’s strong exposure to Greece. It is simultaneously announced that state coffers are running out of funds. There is no money left to pay civil servants salaries for August.

Copyright: United World Capital

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Short relief after China’s 3Q GDP

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments

Chinese last GDP figures fall to its lowest level in three years. After a long period of double digit growth, China had in last quarter a GDP growth on 7,6 %. The numbers came in slightly better than analyst expectations, and created a short-lived relief rally on Asian stock exchanges, which turned up after six days of losses. The GDP numbers also gave a boost to the Australian dollar.

A weaker real estate market and slowing exports had a negative impact on the GDP numbers. Investments are, however, positive and rose expectations for stronger growth in the last half year of 2012. The government policies change to pro growth and stronger emphasize on the domestic market, has led investors to believe that China shall continue to stimulate growth.

The Euro zone received a new blow yesterday when the international rating agency Moodys downgraded Italy to the same level as Kazakhstan and Bulgaria. The downgrading put the EURO under renewed pressure. Euro/USD falls below 1.22. It has recovered and trades at present at 1.2207. EURO hit 1.2166 during Thursday’s trading. The Yen is again up against the dollar, USD/JPY trading at 79,28. American and European stock markets were down yesterday.

Oil prices are demonstrating some strength. Brent reached 101 yesterday and is presently trading at 100,77. US crude, NYMEX, is trading at 85,88 a barrel. Gold is 1571 after hitting a low on 1555 yesterday. Silver is up trading at 27,20 after falling to 26,55 yesterday.

Copyright: United World Capital

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Asian shares extend rally

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments

Asian shares extended their rally on Monday on increased hopes for a smooth Chinese landing. Visiting the Southern, Western province of Sichuan, the Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao raised the prospect of more stimuli if needed. The composite Asian stock index, MCSI, continues 0,3 % up after jumping 1 % on Friday. Euro/USD is inching up at 1.2242 after trading at 1.2169 on Friday. Japan is closed for holidays, but the Yen is, nevertheless, gaining ground, trading up 0,2 % against USD at 79,0955. Brent crude stays above 102 Gold is flat at 1589.

With worries about China off the boil, market concerns are shifting back to the United States and the Federal Reserve’s next policy move. The attention this week is on quarterly results. A slew of US corporate earnings are expected. The main focus is, however, on FED Chairman, Ben Bernanke’s semi-annual testimony to the US Congress on the economy set for Tuesday and Wednesday.

After central banks in Europe, China, South Korea and Brazil all have lowered their interest rates to stimulate growth, markets will seek clues on the Fed’s stance over a stronger monetary policy to support US recovery. Bernanke has earlier stated that the FED will take further easing measures only if necessary.

After the international rating agency Moody’s downgraded Italy to near junk status last week, the outcome of the Italian bond auctions on Friday were better than expected. Three years bond yields were at lowest levels since May. 10-year yields rose to near 6 %. Reflecting investor’s jitters over the Euro, currency speculators last week raised their bets in favor of the US dollar, boosting their positions against the Euro to their highest in one month.

Copyright: United World Capital

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Grimmer outlook for global economy

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments

Both Brent crude (103,57) and NYMEX (88,57) rose for the fourth straight session Monday. Oil is up on expectations on stimulus measures for a slowing world economy. Tension on Iran creates increased worries for oil supplies and crude storages in the US is down.

Stocks rise and the dollar eased as investors await Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s testimony to Congress. EURO/USD trading at 1.2292 as investors covered short positions and hunted for bargains. Australian dollar is up on expectations (1.0300 vs USD) that further Chinese stimulus shall increase demand for coal and other commodities exported to China.

US retail sales numbers came weaker than expected yesterday. Together with the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) new low forecast for global growth in 2013, the weaker retails has increased investors expectations for FED monetary stimulus. IMF is predicting 8,5 % economic growth for China and reduces India’s growth to 6,5 %. IMF has a grim outlook for both the US and Euro zone.

In its midyear “health check” on the global economy, IMF said that emerging markets were dragged down by the economic turmoil in Europe. IMF has reduced their global forecast for 2013 from 4,1 to 3,9 %. Its outlook for 2012 is kept at 3,5 %.

Copyright: United World Capital

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Mixed message fails to impress markets

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments

Ready, but not yet, was the FED’s Chairman Ben Bernanke’s mixed message in a Congressional hearing yesterday. Bernanke offered a gloomy view of the economic prospects, but gave no concrete clues on whether FED is moving one-step closer to a fresh round of monetary stimulus.

Bernanke’s testimony failed to make any impact on global markets. US exchanges mainly concentrated on companies’ earnings where several blue chips came in with better results than expected. Both Coca Cola and the banking group, Goldman Sachs, beat profit forecasts. Tin Asia the Japanese Nikkei was up 0,3 % mainly due to a slight fall in the Yen. USD/JPY is trading above 70 this morning at 79,005.Other Asian exchanges are mixed with no clear direction. Copper prices, a sensitive barometer for growth, are up after four negative days on expectations for growth stimulus.

Bernanke’s statement had no impact on the Euro/USD which continues to hover close to 1,23 at 1.2281. The Australian dollar is still strong close to four weeks high. The British pound, GBP is also showing a stronger trend. Oil prices are falling from yesterdays high, but still steady. Brent crude stays above 103 with NYMEX close to 89. Gold and Silver are striving to find a clear direction. Gold trading at 1579 after reaching 1598 and falling back to 1573 yesterday.

The financial news is dominated by the British parliamentarian hearings on Barclays Bank and the libor scandal. Adding to the bad image of banks internationally, American regulators have accused one other of the world banking giants, HSBC, for comprehensive money laundering of Mexican drug cartel money and for involvement in shadowy terrorist weapon deals.

Copyright: United World Capital

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US-data and earnings fight for upper hand

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments

After a string of good corporate quarterly results, US- factory activities contracted for a third straight month in July as new claims for jobless aid surged last week. The tech sector with companies as IBM, eBay and Google presented strong earnings and lifted the S&P to a two and a half month high. Nasdaq gained 0,80 %. Dow Jones ended also slightly up after a mixed session where earnings were fighting dismal economic macro news for attention, raising new hopes for an injection of economic stimulus.

Asian shares were down this morning after a strong week posting its biggest weekly gain since January. Oil prices reached a 8-week high as Middle East tensions stoked supply concerns. Brent crude traded close to USD 108 barrel and NYMEX jumped to 92 on fear that the serious internal situation in Syria might spill over and tempt an Israeli/American strike on Iran. The rally in soft commodities as corn and soybean continues. Copper prices, which have traded upwards this week, fall in Asia trade. Gold is steady on 1582.

The Euro zone crisis was back in focus as the German Bundestag discussed emergency aid for the Spanish banks. Spain has tried to distinguish between their 100 Billion Euro bail-out package for their struggling banks and the country’s sovereign debt. The debate made abundantly clear that the Spanish state in the end is fully responsible for support given to its bank through different EU emergency mechanism. The demands for austerity measures have created strong reactions in Spain with mass demonstrations in Barcelona and Madrid.

The Euro is under continued pressure falling towards the USD to 1.2258. The Euro fall to a record low level against the Australian dollar. USD/JPY is keeping up its high levels trading at 78,605. The Libor scandal continues. A group of banks investigated for interest-rate rigging, are looking to pursue a group settlement with regulators. This rather than to face a Barclays style backlash. Barclay settled with British regulators paying a USD 453 million penalty.

Copyright: United World Capital

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EURO/YEN at 12 years low

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments

Euro fell to 12 years low against JPY in Asian trading this morning. The Euro zone sovereign debt crisis and the survival of the Euro are back in the headlines after two of Spain’s indebted regions sought financial assistance from the central government in Madrid. This comes in addition to the 100 billion Euro bail out sought for Spain’s struggling banking sector. The last developments have increased fears that the fourth biggest economy in the euro zone will be forced to follow Greece, Portugal and Ireland for sovereign bail outs. The Euro saw its lowest levels in years also against the USD trading at 1.2112. USD/JPY is at 78,191, down 0,41 %.

The troika consisting of representative from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), European Central Bank (ECB) and European Commission (EU) is back Greece today to control whether Greece has been able to live up to their austerity obligations. The new Samaras government which is supported by the former ruling party PASOK and a small center left party, has been off to a slow start since the elections a month ago. New privatizations have been announced, but nobody really believes in Greece’s intentions.

In Berlin Angela Merkel issued a strong warning, stressing that if Greece was not able to live up to its obligations the country would be forced to leave the Euro. With Spanish regions asking central aid in addition to the banks, the scene is set for a dramatic development. Madrid, Barcelona, and other big cities saw mass demonstrations and clash between demonstrators and police during the weekend. This constitutes a bad omen to the bond auction today. Last week the interest rate on long term Spanish bonds fell to 7,2 %, below the critical 7 % floor.

In Asia, stocks fall strongly on worries on the Euro zone and a renewed report of slowing Chinese growth. A central bank analyst predicted 7,4 % growth in the third quarter, lower than the 7,6 % growth in the second quarter which most observers saw as a bottom and a token that the decline in GDP is flattening out. MSCIs broadest index for Asia-Pacific shares fell two percentages. Mining stocks were especially hard hit. Oil prices also fell moderately. Brent crude is at 105,56. NYMEX at 90.51. The speculations on weaker growth in China have put commodities under pressure.

The bad news from Asia is expected to have a negative impact when markets open in Europe and USA where futures are pointing down. The earning seasons continue with Apple on Tuesday and Facebook reporting results on Thursday.

Copyright: United World Capital

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Euro drops on Spanish fears

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments

The Euro fall to multiyear lows versus the Yen and the dollar on Tuesday on fears that Spain shall be forced to ask for a full-scale international bailout; and renewed rumors that Greece might have to leave the Euro. The international rating agency Moody’s changed its outlook on German, Luxembourg and the Netherlands to negative, warning that Europe’s top rated AAA countries may have to increase support for indebted Spain and Italy. Euro/USD is trading at 1.21.26 after dipping even lower Monday and in Tuesday morning trade. Analysts predict that the Euro might drop as low as to 1,10 during the next half year.

The Spanish bond auction saw a 7,50 record high interest rate on ten years bond after two of Spain’s regions, Valencia and Catalonia sought help under a 18 billion Euro program aimed at helping regional finances. More regions are said to follow suit. The Euro also hit record lows against the Australian, Canadian, and New Zealand dollars. A European Central Bank statement stressing that Greek bonds are not eligible as collateral, did neither serve to support the euro. The Euro fall to a three and a half years low against British pounds, GDP and saw half year bottom levels against Norwegian and Swedish crowns.

The Asian stock market stabilized Tuesday after yesterday’s steep fall. The South Asian Pacific index, MSCIX, fall 0,8 % after a second negative day in New York. McDonald delivered a disappointing result and fall 2,8 %. With one third of the companies reporting quarterly results, 67 % have reported better than expected results. That helped market sentiments last week, but McDonald’s results did not change this week’s negative trend.

Oil prices fell sharply on Monday down for a second day on worries that Spain is heading for a bailout and the euro-zone debt crisis is spreading. This prompted investors to sell assets perceived as risky boosting the dollar and US treasuries. Brent fell more than 3 % to 103,50 and NYMEX to 88 USD pr. Barrel. Gold is steady on 1576. The last developments in global markets have increased the likelihood that US Federal Reserve shall undertake monetary measures to stimulate the economy. That shall probably boost precious metals as gold and silver. Statistics presented by one of the biggest global banks, HSBC, indicates better July factory numbers from China, an indication the Chinese government stimulus have started to work.

Copyright: United World Capital

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Apple misses earning targets

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments

Apple, the world most valuable technological company, fell short of markets expectations when it presented its quarterly results yesterday. Shares dropped more than 5 percent. A sagging European economy and a pause in iPhone sales ahead of a new version saw revenues slip from previous quarter. The rare miss highlights how the Apple brand is becoming less resistant to economic and product cycles that for a long time have plagued rivals. Net income jumped 21 % to USD 8,8 billion, 10 percent below expectations. The steepest fall was registered in Asia.

Stock markets continued to fall for a fourth day in Asia. Technology stocks were hardest hit. The fall followed stock losses in Europe and the United States. The Euro wobbled above multi-year lows against major currencies. Euro/USD fell to 1.2068 trading at 1.2074 in the morning. Spain’s ten years bonds hit a record low interest rate on 7,64 % increasing fears that Spain might need a sovereign bail-out. Greece seems unlikely to meet terms conditional to its aid package. This has led to renewed speculation of a breakup of the Euro zone.

The Japanese Nikkei fell to a seven-week low before trimming winter session losses to 1 %. Grain prices, the big commodity winner over the last weeks, have dropped on profit taking the last two days. Better weather forecasts in drought stricken areas; have given some relief to the outlook for US crops. Copper hit a month low with a further easing in NYMEX, US crude oil to USD 88,36 a barrel. Brent crude steadied around 103,50. Oil investors are following the development in the Middle East with increased fear.

The outlook for commodities is closely linked to Europe. The continued downward pressure on the Euro might, however, lead investors to seek towards traditional safe havens as precious metals, this also taking the weak state of the US economy into consideration. Gold is trading at 1582 in the morning up from yesterday’s low seventies. Silver has over the last weeks several times hit back from a technical resistance level on 26 – 26,50, trading at 27,02 in the morning.

Copyright: United World Capital

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USA: Cocktail from News and Quarterly Results

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments

On Wednesday, July 25, the stock market of the USA showed multidirectional dynamics against an exit of weight of quarterly results, statements of representatives of FRS and European Central Bank, and also the publication of statistical data. Therefore, the representative of FRS with a vote in FOMC - Sara Raskin declared that at the next meeting the question of purchase of bonds on balance of Federal Reserve System will be considered. On this message expectation of investors, concerning introduction of the new program of quantitative mitigation inflamed with new force.

As to the Old World, here the member of executive council of the European central bank Evald Novotny reported about existence of arguments in favor of granting to the ESM banking license. This statement was apprehended by investors with a positive since increase of potential of Stabilization Fund could help to fight more effectively against debt crisis, especially in case of the request of Spain for the international financial help.

The statistics on housing sector in the USA appeared disappointing. Therefore, sales of new housing in June were reduced from 0,382 million month earlier to 0,350 million while analysts predicted decrease only to 0,370 million.

In the middle of the week, some large companies of the USA reported financial results of the past quarter. Thus, Apple and ConocoPhillips firms absolutely disappointed investors, while the reporting of Boeing pleased expectations.

Following the results of the trading session the indicator of "blue chip" the index of Dow Jones Industrial Average grew up for 0,465 % and was closed on a level of 12676,05 points, the index of the wide market S&P 500 went down for 0,031 % to level 1337,89 points, and the index of the hi-tech companies Nasdaq "grew thin" for 0,306 % to a level 2854,24 points.

Oil has been rising in price yesterday. This morning prices of "black gold" are slightly pointing down and traded on a level of 104.00 for Brent and 88.61 on Light a barrel. Oil has risen despite the unexpected and significant increase in its reserves in the U.S. for the last week, most probably in connection with the statements of the Ewald Nowotny – the representative of ECB on the advisability of granting the European Financial Stability Fund ESM banking license.

The euro is strengthening against dollar due to the coming news background and is traded this morning on a level of 1.2146 rebounding from the support level of 1,20 to which the pair came down the day before. But, nevertheless, the growth is sluggish and does not dispose to open "long positions" at current levels.

Today we are expecting a block of information on the U.S. labor market, the statistics on U.S. real estate market and data on orders for durable goods. As well as the season of the presentation of quarterly results continue, reports will provide Amazon.Com, Facebook Inc. which expected earnings per share are $ 0,12, France Telecom SA, New York Times Co., Rolls-Royce Holdings PLC, Starbucks Corp., Statoil ASA, Volkswagen AG.

Copyright: United World Capital

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Speech of Mario Dragi inspired the world markets, but it is not obvious for how long time.

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments

On Thursday, July 26, the stock market of the United States finished trading session by considerable growth of the main indexes. Following the results of session the indicator of blue counters of Dow Jones Industrial Average raised on 1,67 % to level of 12887,93 points, the S&P500 increased by 22,13 points or 1,65 % to a mark of 1360,02 points, and the Nasdaq reached a point 2893,25 points.

The external background for the American session was extremely favorable taking into account comments of the president of European Central Bank at investment conference in London. Mario Dragi declared that all necessary measures will be taken for rescue of euro, "believe me, it will be enough". On concepts of investment community the statement of the Dragi means that from European Central Bank it is possible to expect intervention in a situation in the debt market for the purpose of knocking down of profitability of debt papers of Spain and Italy.

The markets also count that Bernanke will keep the promise to stimulate economy growth in spite of the fact that the yesterday's figure on unemployment could reduce this probability. The number of addresses decreased to 353 thousand while 380 thousand were expected. Meanwhile, more important figure will be presented today. Data on gross domestic product of the USA, as expected, will finally strengthen or will weaken a factor of FRS of the USA. Let's remind that from meeting of FOMC 31 of July-1 of August investors wait for decisions, significant for the financial markets. Besides gross domestic product, figure data on consumer inflation in Germany is coming today.

The optimistic spirit on world markets remains in the morning, after yesterday's rally, however, players will wait for new drivers of growth in case of which absence "bulls" risk to get under a wave of fixing of profit. On Friday important news can arrive from a meeting of the Greek prime minister with "Troika" of creditors. Investors in general are ready to continue purchases that only really disappointing news can change.

Copyright: United World Capital

[UWC Neeraj]

Asia extends gains on stimulus hopes

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments

Asian stocks extended their impressing gains from last week on Monday. The Asian Pacific MCSI index gained 1,1 % to reach a three week high. This after posting its biggest daily rise in a month with a 2,2 % jump on Friday. Korean, Australian, and Japanese shares all rose supported by expectations that the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, ECB, will undertake stimulus measures to support its fragile economies.

The turn in global market was triggered last week when the President of ECB, Mario Draghi, pledged he would do whatever it takes to safe guard the Euro. His comments raised hopes that ECB on its meeting tomorrow, will act to ease borrowing strains for Spain which last week saw interest rates on 10 years bonds raise to 7,78 percent. Both Spain and Italian bond rates fall after Draghi’s statement.

The Euro/USD fell 0,4 % to 1,2285 after reaching a three week high on 1.2390 touched on Friday. The Euro fall as deep as 1.2042 before Draghi’s statement. The currency picture has stabilized somewhat with USD/JPY trading at 78,381. Oil prices are up with Brent crude at 106,64. Gold is at 1621 and Silver 27,61. Copper is higher and corn raises gain after technical downward corrections last week.

The hopes for a new round of quantitative easing received a new boost by dismal US growth figures at the end of last week. US growth is slowing to an annualized rate of 1,5 % in the second quarter. The pace of growth is now, too, slow to bring down unemployment, threatening both global economic recovery and President Barack Obama’s prospect for reelection.

Friday’s figures were broadly in line with market expectations. It shall add to Federal Reserve’s fear on unemployment, but may not be alarming enough to force immediate action for monetary easing during the FED is meeting this week.

Copyright: United World Capital

[UWC Neeraj]

Stimulus hopes keep markets rise

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments

Hopes for further stimulus when the European Central Bank, ECB, and US Federal Reserve meet during this week, helped the Asian markets rise for the third day in row. After impressing gains both at Friday and yesterday, the South Asian Pacific Index, MSCI, added 0,8 percent this morning. Skepticism about any long-term effect of ECB actions, however, capped the euro. Euro/USD trades at 1.2280, down from Friday’s high of 1.2390, but well above 1.2042 reached last week.

ECB President, Mario Draghi, stated last Friday that saving the Euro was an overriding concern. However, markets are waiting to see what this mean in practical terms, and hope for a clear indication when ECB meets later this week. It is presumed that the ECB considers continuing its controversial bond-buying program and even starting printing money. This type of quantitative easing is probably still weeks away. It is neither expected that the Federal Reserve will make any move towards stimulus before after the holidays in September. The interest rate of Spain’s ten years bond fall to 6,61 % yesterday.

President Barack Obama added his voice to the Euro debate on Monday. Predicting continued months of headwinds for the US economy, Obama stressed that he thinks the EURO shall remain intact. He admitted, however, that Europe’s debt still poses a big challenge to the world economy.

Brent crude fell back to USD 106 a barrel on Monday. That in spite of lower OPEC production in July. Worries that expected stimulus may not be enough to lift slowing economies, overshadowed signs of reduced oil production.

While most attention is focused on the Euro/USD, both Australian and New Zealand dollars continue their positive upward trend. USD/JPY is at 78,18 with the yen getting stronger. Gold (1623) and silver (28,24) are inching up eying the FED meeting.

The US-markets ended flat yesterday. Intel posted weaker results than expected,. That weighed on the high technology index, Nasdaq, which closed in red. HSBC, one of the world’s leading banks, are reporting results today. It announced simultaneously that it has set aside USD 2 Billion to meet claims following a string of scandals lately, including accepting money from a Mexican drug cartel.

Copyright: United World Capital

[UWC Neeraj]

Oil and shares fall as stimulus hope fade

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments

China’s official factory purchasing managers’ index fell to an eight-month low in July, underscoring that the world’s second-biggest economy is losing momentum. Oil prices are down for a second straight day with Brent crude trading at USD 104 a barrel as markets in Asia also fell. Brent has nevertheless gained more than 7 percent in July after a three months decline, due mainly to increased tension between Iran and western countries on Teheran’s nuclear program. This as markets hopes for sufficient stimulus to revive economic growth faded.

Stocks fell both in Europe and the US on Tuesday on growing realization that neither the European Central Bank (ECB) or the US Federal Reserve (FED) during their meetings this week, will come up with a new round of stimulus that seriously shall turn markets around. ECB president, Mario Draghi, succeeded to lift the Euro with his strong commitment to the common currency up last week. However, markets are expecting concrete deeds more than words, and most analysts seem to have given up believing in active measures in August and point to September as the conclusive month.

This has dampened market sentiments as all the major indexes fell. Dow Jones was, nevertheless, able to stay above the 13 000 mark while Nasdaq was saved by a 2,6 percent rise in Apple on rumors that a new product will be launched in September. The bad fortunes for Facebook continue. The quarterly results were far below expectations, and the stock price fell to USD 21 meaning a 50 % fall in its value since the IPO was introduced some few months ago.

EURO/USD stays stabile at 1.2294. The reduced expectations for forceful actions from ECB and FED along with new worrying signals that the Chinese economy is still declining weakened the Australian dollar in early trade. Japanese yen continues up. USD/JPY stands at 78,04. Hopes for forceful stimulus gave a boost as well to precious metals. Gold is falling back from 1630 during trading on Tuesday and stands at 1614. Silver is 27.94.

Copyright: United World Capital

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Market hopes stay with ECB

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments

The US Federal Reserve stopped short of offering new monetary stimulus when it met yesterday. In a carefully worded statement, FED left the door open for further bond buying to help a struggling US-economy losing its momentum. Markets reacted mutely. The US exchanges ended flat after initially sending Dow and Nasdaq down on the FED’s inaction. Asia eased 0,2 percent in morning trade. While surprisingly, strong Australian retail and trade balances’ figures helped strengthen both stocks and the Aussie dollar. The Japanese Yen is falling to USD/JPY 78,51.

FED’s inability to offer new stimulus, left the burden of markets hopes on the shoulders of the European Central Bank, ECB. The USD reached a one-week high in Asia with EURO under new pressure. EURO/USD trades at 1.2247. The dollar index saw its highest level since July 26th, keeping the bar low for additional monetary easing when the FED meets in September. The spot light today on ECB President, Mario Draghi, who last week created strong expectations, stating to do whatever it takes to protect the Euro.

The most likely outcome of the ECB meeting today is new statement declaring ECB’s willingness to use all available tools if deemed necessary. This will stop short of any concrete action, and most probably mean that ECB will postpone any concerted actions to purchase sovereign debt from Spain and Italy until September. Such steps are deemed necessary to push down the borrowing costs for these two most exposed Euro zone economies. A new strongly worded statement will, however, not be regarded as satisfactory for markets being optimistic for concrete actions.

Such inaction also from the ECB, shall surely send stock markets down and put a striving Euro under renewed downward pressure. Oil prices have picked up a dollar a barrel since yesterday with Brent crude trading at 105,90. Precious metal traders are sending gold (1602) and silver (26,45) down disappointed by FED’s decision to postpone any concrete action to stimulate the economy.

Copyright: United World Capital

[UWC Neeraj]

Euro and shares fall on ECB inaction

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments

The US and the European central banks had created strong market expectations prior to their meetings this week. Both failed to deliver. The Federal Reserve presented a vaguely formulated statement, which fell short of any clear indications of active monetary steps to stimulus to boost a stagnating US-economy. The European Central Bank, ECB, followed up with an equally dubious statement leaving to anybody guess, whether Europe has the will or intentions to come to grip with the sovereign debt crisis. Interest rates on Spanish and Italian bonds fell.

The markets reacted as expected by sending global stocks down and putting the Euro under new downward pressure. ECB President Mario Draghi’s powerful statement last Friday saved the Euro for one week. After ECB’s inaction, EURO/USD sniffed on the bottom level from last week, 1.2125, to trade at 1.2176 in opening hours in Asia. Draghi’s tactics to try force action from other ECB members had obviously failed. This week has again demonstrated that Germany is the European economic powerhouse. Germany is pulling the string regardless of policy statements.

After steep falls in Europe and US; Dow Jones fell 0,71 % and Nasdaq 0,36%, Asian stock exchanges were down for the third day in row. Reports on falling oil storages in US keeps Brent crude above USD 106 a barrel. Gold (1590) and silver (27,18) are as other commodities under renewed downward pressure after the one week mini “expectation’s” rally. Japanese yen is the winner in the currencies market. USD/JPY trading at 78,1955. British Pounds, GDP, is falling against USD. USD/GDP trades close to 1.55 after 3long being stabile around the 1,57 mark against the dollar.

Today’s trading in Europe and US shall give an indication on whether global markets shall continue to fall through August to build up new expectations for active FED and ECB economic stimulus after the holidays in September. The slow trend towards parity between USD and Euro is expected to continue.

Facebook’s share price came under new pressure yesterday and fell 4 % to USD 20 a share. This after doubts on the real FB number of subscribers. FB has a high number of duplicate accounts many clients registering cats, dogs, and pets.

Copyright: United World Capital

[UWC Neeraj]

Shares rally on US jobs

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
by Arne Treholt Vice-President of Business Development and Investments

Asian markets rallied in the morning hours today, following stronger than expected US jobs data and renewed optimism for European action on the debt crisis. The Euro touched a one-month high against USD reaching 1.2415, before falling back and trading on 1.2391. Oil prices also jumped on 63 000 new jobs added in US in July. Brent crude is trading at 108,48. Precious metals are stronger: Gold is at 1605.

The US jobs data gave US and European stocks a strong boost Friday after disappointing news from US Federal Reserve and the European Central bank, ECB, earlier in the week.
The overwhelming positive reaction on the US jobs data underscores global markets nervousness and volatility. A deeper look into Friday’s figures show that after job’s losing months, July’s employment kept track with jobs lost. The unemployment increased from 8,1 to 8,2 percent, and gives no reason for long standing jubilation in a market hungry for any news which can be interpreted as positive.

The jobs data has given the market a relief and bigger risk appetite for now with expectations once more building up for possible FED and ECB actions in September. However, caution shall likely remain until concrete measures are taken. The ECB statement last week demonstrated that Germany and the German Central Bank still are firmly in control, allowing no experiments from neither Francoise Holland nor Mario Draghi. Italian Prime Minister, Mario Monti, with his background as former EU-commissioner, expressed his frustration with the present development. In an interview with German Der Spiegel, Monti stated that the infighting between member countries has a devastating impact on the feeling of European unity.

The focus in global markets would probably this week be more on Asia than US and a holiday month Europe. China is fine-tuning its monetary policies, and trade, bank loans, and investment figures would give an indication on whether China has reached the bottom and is back on the path to economic growth. Australian dollar continue to be strong. The dollar is weaker against most currencies, and USD/Yen is trading at 78,4622.

Copyright: United World Capital