- 10-17-2011, 09:16 #1
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Windsor Brokers - Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (07:30 GMT)
Maintains short-term bullish structure, with last Friday’s push through 1.3845, Fibonacci 50% of 1.4548/1.3145 downleg, extended gains close to 1.3900, initial target. Consolidation above previous high at 1.3832 keeps focus on 1.3900, above which comes 1.3935, 15 Sep high and key short-term resistance. Near-term studies remain supportive, with 4-hour chart 20 day MA, currently at 1.3790, underpinning the advance. However, MACD bearish divergence on 4-hour chart, may signal stronger pullback, to focus key near-term support and breakpoint at 1.3685. Daily studies are regaining momentum, as the pair approaches 55 day MA at 1.3951, but break above 1.4000/60, strong resistance zone, where Fib 61.8% and 200 day MA lie, is required to turn daily structure positive.
Res: 1.3892, 1.3900, 1.3935, 1.4000
Sup: 1.3830, 1.3800, 1.3722, 1.3700
Break through 1.5800 barrier, where Fib 38.2% of 1.6617/1.5271 also lies, confirm short-term bullish stance. Clearance of initial target at 1.5840 and approach to the next ones at 1.5865/1.5900 is now likely, as corrective pullback was contained at main short-term bull trendline, drawn off 1.5271 low. 20 day MA, currently at 1.5742, supports, with hourly outlook showing fresh momentum. Above 1.5900 to focus 1.5940, Fib 50%. Today’s low at 1.5780, offers initial support, ahead of 1.5720, while only break below 1.5685/65, strong support zone, would weaken the near-term structure and allow for deeper correction. Daily outlook is still bearish, as death cross on daily chart signals the current rally as corrective while 55/90 MA’s capping the upside.
Res: 1.5836, 1.5851, 1.5865, 1.5900
Sup: 1.5800, 1.5780, 1.5721, 1.5700
Hourly outlook shows some positive tone, as pair attempts to hold above 77.00 level, however, upside remains capped by main bear-trendline, drawn off 85.50, 07 Apr high, as last Friday’s fresh attempt higher stalled at 77.44. Break above 77.50, strong near-term barrier is required to spark fresh gains and open 77.85/78.00 for retest. On the downside, 77.00 offers initial support, while loss of 76.30 to signal fresh weakness and expose key supports at 76.10/75.93. Daily studies remain flat, with break of either short-term extreme points to signal fresh direction.
Res: 77.29, 77.44, 77.48, 77.85
Sup: 77.00, 76.90, 76.80, 76.67
Short-term outlook remains bearish, with violation of key support at 0.8920, increasing risk of further weakness, as low of 0.8902 was seen last Friday. Near-term consolidation above the latter is likely to be short-lived, as gains were capped at 0.8950, away from strong near-term barrier at 0.9000, clearance of which is required to ease immediate bear pressure. On the downside, clear break below 0.8920/00 to open way for test of 0.8815, main bull trendline, drawn off 0.7067, pair’s record low and 0.8970, daily 200 day MA.
Res: 0.8953, 0.9000, 0.9038, 0.9051
Sup: 0.8910, 0.8900, 0.8850, 0.8815
Provided By: www.windsorbrokers.com
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