Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.2395

[EV0912]

Although the British pound edged higher to 1.6038, as price has eased from there, suggesting consolidation below this week’s high of 1.6060 would take place and below the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.5996) would bring another corrective fall to minor support at 1.5933, however, reckon the Ichimoku cloud top (now at



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[EV0912]

Despite dollar’s anticipated retreat from 0.9656, a break of indicated support at 0.9551 (yesterday’s low) is needed to confirm the decline from 0.9784 top has resumed and bring a stronger retracement of recent rise to 0.9540/45 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9301 to 0.9784) and then towards the previous resistance at 0.9518.



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[EV0912]

Although the single currency extended recent upmove and exceeded indicated resistance at 1.3500, as price has retreated from 1.3508, suggesting minor top has possibly been formed and consolidation with mild downside bias is seen but break of the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.3428) is needed to add credence to this view



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[EV0912]

Dollar’s selloff after meeting renewed selling interest around previous resistance at 82.81 suggests the decline from 83.70 top is still in progress and bearishness remains for a stronger retracement of recent upmove to 81.99 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 80.93 to 83.70) but reckon 81.50 would hold from here, bring rebound later.



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[EV0912]

Despite yesterday’s brief rise to 111.17, as the single currency has retreated from there, suggesting consolidation below this level would take place and retracement to previous support at 109.57 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon renewed buying interest would emerge around 109.00, bring another upmove later.



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[EV0912]

Although aussie has continued to move higher and gain to 1.0080/85 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0257 to 0.9803) cannot be ruled out, as this move from 0.9803 is still treated as correction of the decline from 1.0257 (top of wave 5), upside should be limited to 1.0100/10 and bring retreat



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[EV0912]

Although the greenback has retreated after yesterday’s rebound from 0.9551 to 0.9656 (we recommended to sell dollar at 0.9645), break of said support at 0.9551 is needed to signal the decline from 0.9784 top has resumed and bring a stronger retracement of recent rise to 0.9540/45 (50% Fibonacci retracement of



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[EV0912]

As the greenback has fallen again after meeting renewed selling interest around previous resistance at 82.81, suggesting the decline from 83.70 top is still in progress for a stronger retracement of recent upmove to 81.99 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 80.93 to 83.70) but reckon 81.50 would hold from here, bring rebound later.



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[EV0912]

Although the single currency has risen again after finding renewed buying interest around the Kijun-Sen as suggested in our previous update (we recommended to buy euro at 1.3360), weakening of upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond resistance at 1.3500 and reckon 1.3520 (50% projection of 1.2904 to 1.3458 measuring from 1.3243) would limit upside



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[EV0912]

Although the British pound has rebounded after finding renewed buying interest at 1.5933 overnight as suggested in our previous update (we recommended to buy cable at 1.5935), break of resistance at 1.6060 is needed to signal upmove from 1.5345 has resumed and extend gain to 1.6085-95 (previous chart resistance as



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[EV0912]

Dollar’s intra-day breach of indicated support at 0.9600/05 suggests the corrective decline from 0.9784 top has resumed and a stronger retracement of recent upmove to rise from 0.9301 0.9570, then 0.9540/45 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9301 to 0.9784) would be seen, however, reckon previous resistance at 0.9518 would hold from here.



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[EV0912]

Although the British pound has risen again after yesterday’s retreat from 1.5955 to 1.5870, weakening of upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 1.5995/00 (50% projection of 1.5513-1.5885 measuring from 1.5810 and psychological resistance) and reckon 1.6040 (61.8% projection) would hold from here, risk has increased for a correction later.



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[EV0912]

Although the greenback rebounded after falling to 82.35 yesterday, as price has retreated again today, suggesting another test of indicated support area at 82.28-35 cannot be ruled out, however, break there is needed to retain bearishness for a stronger retracement of recent upmove to 81.99 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 80.93



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[EV0912]

Although the single currency has rebounded after holding above yesterday’s low at 1.3243 and consolidation with mild upside bias is seen, a sustained breach of the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.3372) is needed to signal the correction from last week’s high at 1.3458 has ended at 1.3243 yesterday and



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[EV0912]

Despite Friday’s retreat to 0.9856, as aussie has rebounded from there as suggested in our previous update, retaining our view that further consolidation would take place and near term upside risk remains for a stronger retracement of the fall from 1.0257 top to 1.0030 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0257 to



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[EV0912]

Although the single currency has rebounded after falling to 109.57 yesterday, above resistance at 110.98-99is needed to signal the rise from 106.83 low (2nd c leg bottom) has resumed and extend gain to 111.25-30 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 115.68 to 106.83) and possibly to 111.80 but reckon 112.20-30 (previous resistance



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[EV0912]

As indicated support area at 82.28-35 has held, retaining our view that further consolidation would take place and recovery to 82.76-81 (current level of the Ichimoku cloud and previous resistance) is likely, however, break there is needed to suggest low is possibly formed and bring test of resistance at 83.08,



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[EV0912]

Despite intra-day rise to 0.9685 (same level as yesterday’s high), the subsequent retreat after faltering below previous resistance at 0.9687 suggests further consolidation would be seen and weakness to the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 0.9689) cannot be ruled out, however, reckon the lower Kumo (now at 0.9565) would hold,



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[EV0912]

Although euro’s firmness suggests recent upmove from 1.2860 low is still in progress and gain to 1.3579 (61.8% projection of 1.3243 to 1.3539 measuring from 1.3396) is likely, loss of momentum would limit upside and reckon 1.3613-26 (61.8% projection of 1.2860-1.3458 measuring from 1.3243 and current level of the flat



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[EV0912]

The single currency has risen again after brief pullback and euro rose to as high as 0.9530 today, suggesting near term upside is for a stronger retracement of the decline from 0.8645 and although marginal gain to 0.8550/60 cannot be ruled out, however, 0.8600 would hold and bring retreat next week.



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